Update Covid 19

Beginning in March 2020, I have periodically written my thoughts on when and how society, especially churches, would return to a more active lifestyle. I think I have been on target with most of my predictions:

1. Life after the pandemic will not be the same as life before the pandemic. Trends that were underway one year ago have been accelerated.
2. Covid 19 will not disappear but will be controlled. My three key indicators are average deaths per day, the positive test rate, and the number of people vaccinated. For NC, deaths have declined to 15 per day on a rolling 7-day average and the positive test rate is just under 3%. The number of fully vaccinated people across the nation continues to be lower than desired, about 50%
3. New cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to decline nationally although there are occasional outbreaks. 

Churches

1. Normal church attendance (for the 80% of churches already plateaued or declining when the pandemic began) will decrease 25-40% January 2020-Jan 2022.
2. Church closings will accelerate, and the turnover of pastors will increase.
3. The influence of secularism will increase in the western world and Christians will be marginalized. Christians will respond as they have for the past 150 years: some will accommodate the secularists, some will try to legislate morality, and a few will remain true to orthodox beliefs, relying on the Holy Spirit’s guidance and comfort as they live and share the gospel.

New guidelines for Mary and me

1. No international travel until 2022. Revaluate in 1Q22.
2. No domestic air travel until 4Q21. Revaluate in 3Q21. 
3. Minimize contact with unmasked and unvaccinated people indoors. 
4. Minimize contact in large, indoor gatherings. 
5. Wear a mask in all indoor gathers (outside our bubble) unless everyone present is vaccinated. 
6. Avoid contact with unmasked and unvaccinated people in all situations for 7 days prior to any visit with our family members. Reevaluate after vaccinations are available for children under 12 years of age.